The hottest paper industry makes clear the industr

2022-08-15
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Paper industry: clarify the industry positioning, break through the bottleneck of development

since the second half of last year, I have participated in some industrial soft science research organized by relevant national departments, involving industrial policies, industrial development plans, etc. to measure and record temperature changes, especially the research on strengthening industrial safety proposed by the state this year. Next, I will talk about my personal understanding and opinions on the overall four aspects of the paper industry in the process of participating in the formulation of relevant national industrial policies and plans

first, the positioning of the paper industry in China. First of all, China cannot live without the paper industry. Some time ago, many environmental protection experts said that papermaking accounted for less than 10% of the industrial output value and produced 1/6 of the water pollution. China should not make paper and should buy it. This view is not feasible

China's economy can have today, it is impossible to achieve without the support of the paper industry. China's economy is 40% driven by the export of consumer goods, which is supported by cheap packaging, and our paper packaging is a very good backing

as such a large economy, it is hard for us to imagine that China has no paper industry. At present, the output of paper and paperboard in the world is 360million tons, and that in China is 60million tons. At present, many industries tend to be saturated. Only papermaking maintains rapid growth, and the consumption of paper and paperboard is growing at a rate of more than 10%, higher than the speed of China's GDP. Therefore, the potential of the papermaking industry is very huge. It is a very important raw material industry and an indispensable industry to support our economic development, which also reflects its important position, It's impossible without this industry

second, the natural defects of China's paper industry are too great. First, fiber resources. China cannot engage in the paper industry like Finland, Canada and Russia. The per capita land area and per capita fiber resources of these countries are much higher than those of China. The most commonly used force measuring sensor is strain gauge sensor. In 15 or 20 years, China's paper consumption will catch up with that of the whole Europe or the United States, close to 100 million tons. At that time, the demand for pulp in China will be very large. Based on the calculation that one ton of fresh pulp is required for every two tons of paper, 50million tons of pulp will also be required. There is also an upper limit for the integration of forestry and paper industry in China, which may increase 10million tons of pulp at most, and the development potential is limited

secondly, fresh water resources are very scarce. The paper industry needs water, which is impossible for the most developed countries in foreign countries not to drain. Of course, this amount is very low, and it can be self purified to the lowest point, which will not have a negative impact on the environment. But it is impossible without water. We have no advantage in water resources

third, the per capita energy share is also very low, which cannot support the unlimited development of our paper industry. The only advantage of our country is human resources, which is obvious in small factories, but for large and modern paper enterprises, the amount of labor is very small, and this resource advantage is not very obvious

third, about antitrust. The country has been brewing the anti-monopoly law for many years. There are some antitrust cases in the paper industry that we can learn from. In the United States, there was a case of the merger of a toilet paper factory three years ago, which was rejected by the antitrust authority. The principle is very simple. There is a so-called formula in the United States, that is, the sum of the squares of the market share of each manufacturer is greater than 1600, and this case cannot be implemented. If they are all very small, and one family accounts for 40%, it won't work. It's too big. When there will be such a figure in China, or what kind of figure to set, it is a matter of time. Some of our paper types may have these problems. Excessive competition is not conducive to the healthy development of our industry. Last year, the price of Coated Whiteboard was reduced to more than 2000 yuan a ton, which is abnormal. However, excessive concentration and monopoly are not conducive to the development of the industry

finally, it is recognized that the stripping method of psychological factors in China is not comprehensive enough, which is the problem of fiber raw materials. Fiber raw materials are indeed a bottleneck in the development of China's paper industry. At present, China is heavily dependent on foreign fibers. Even if we integrate forestry and paper and increase 10million tons of pulp, it is only the amount of commercial pulp imported by China this year

according to the development prediction, China's consumption will be close to 100 million tons in 10 years, and the output will be close to 100 million tons in 15 years. This growth is very strong. The way to solve this problem is to integrate forestry and paper, and to strengthen the recycling of waste paper

according to incomplete statistics, of the less than 60million tons of paper we produce, 20million tons have followed China's exported consumer goods to Europe and the United States, significantly improving their recovery rate, which is only more than 30%. If the 20million tons are removed, our recovery rate will exceed 50%, which is equivalent to the current level in the United States. It is not low for developing countries like us, so it is of great significance to develop China's fiber raw material resources through multiple channels

reprinted from: China business times

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